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    Surgery Partners Inc (SGRY)

    SGRY Q1 2025: 220bp Rate Cap Headwind to Weigh on Free Cash Flow

    Reported on Aug 20, 2025 (Before Market Open)
    Pre-Earnings Price$22.50Open (May 12, 2025)
    Post-Earnings Price$22.50Open (May 12, 2025)
    Price Change
    $0.00(0.00%)
    • Robust Revenue Growth & Compounding Physician Recruiting: Q&A comments highlighted that newly recruited physicians are driving a 160% increase in cases and 182% higher revenue year-over-year compared to the previous cohort, suggesting strong organic growth momentum and compounding benefits.
    • Margin Expansion Through Operational Improvements: Discussion on ongoing revenue cycle integration efforts and operating system enhancements signals improving margins, as streamlined processes in billing and scheduling drive higher revenue pull-through and reduced costs.
    • Stable Payer Mix & Minimal Tariff Exposure: Executives indicated that there is no significant change in the payer mix and that over 70% of spend is protected through HealthTrust, providing confidence in mitigating tariff-related risks and supporting consistent profitability.
    • Interest Rate Headwinds: The recent expiration of the interest rate swap and its replacement with an interest rate cap—capping exposure at 5% compared to the previous effective rate of about 4.4%—introduces approximately 220 basis points of additional interest expense, which could pressure free cash flow over the remaining nine months of the year.
    • Integration and Acquisition Risks: Continued M&A and de novo activities, while accretive, carry inherent integration risks. The timing of acquiring new facilities and their inclusion in same-store metrics might temporarily skew performance, especially if the intended benefits from acquisitions and operational integrations take longer to materialize.
    • Seasonal Volatility in Cash Flow: Q1 showed unusually high distributions to partners (about $62–63 million, roughly $22 million more than typical) due to calendar timing factors. This seasonal volatility, compounded by the potential interest rate headwind, may raise concerns about the consistency and sustainability of free cash flow generation through the year.
    1. Free Cash Flow
      Q: Will free cash flow normalize soon?
      A: Management expects operating cash flows to improve in later quarters as seasonal timing normalizes, though a 220 basis point headwind from the new interest rate cap will impact near-term cash flow.

    2. Leverage Targets
      Q: What are your M&A and leverage goals?
      A: They plan to deploy around $200M in M&A annually with leverage trending down toward 3x as earnings grow and cash generation strengthens.

    3. Utilization Trends
      Q: Are utilization trends sustainable?
      A: Executives pointed to strong case volume and robust specialty performance, noting that same-store revenue growth reflects a mix of volume increases and scheduled lower-revenue procedures while staying within expected ranges.

    4. Tariff Exposure
      Q: How is tariff risk managed?
      A: With about 70% of spend routed through HealthTrust and transparent contracting, management sees no material tariff exposure in the near to midterm.

    5. Acquisition Timing
      Q: When will acquisitions affect same-store metrics?
      A: Facilities acquired mid-year are incorporated into same-store calculations once fully operational, typically starting in the third quarter.

    6. Acquisitions & De novos
      Q: How are acquisitions and de novos structured?
      A: Recent acquisitions have been consolidated immediately, while de novos launch unconsolidated—with a target of 10 under development annually—providing additional growth at lower entry costs.

    7. Operating Efficiency
      Q: What drives margin expansion?
      A: Improved operating systems through standardized revenue cycle processes and better data integration in supply chain management are expected to enhance margins over time.

    8. Payer Mix & Pricing
      Q: Is there a negative payer mix impact?
      A: Management reported stable payer mix and competitive pricing, with no significant adverse changes despite minor rate pressures from increases in lower-revenue GI procedures.

    9. Labor & Expenses
      Q: How are pro fees and labor trends evolving?
      A: Professional fee levels align with anticipated costs from prior acquisitions, and anesthesia labor conditions remain generally unaffected, keeping overall expense trends on track.

    10. Recruiting Quality
      Q: How is your physician recruiting performing?
      A: The latest recruiting class has generated about 14% higher revenue per doctor, showing improved quality across specialties even though the precise high-acuity mix isn’t detailed.

    11. GI Mix Impact
      Q: What is the GI mix’s revenue impact?
      A: While an increased share of lower-revenue GI cases has slightly pressured average rates, the overall volume remains robust and in line with growth expectations.

    12. Cardiac Growth
      Q: How is cardiac growth progressing?
      A: Cardiac procedures are growing slowly at first, with new cath lab-based centers starting up, signaling modest short-term progress with strong long-term potential.

    13. Weather Impact
      Q: Did weather affect performance this quarter?
      A: Management noted that weather had an immaterial effect on case volumes, with its impact being negligible compared to overall performance.

    Research analysts covering Surgery Partners Inc.